So with just two weeks to go what does the race for Mayor look like? With the Houston Chronicle endorsing Bill White it now appears that Orlando Sanchez and Bill White may well end up in a runoff. But, don't count Sylvester Turner out. His TV has just started and he is working hard in his base precincts to make sure that his vote gets out to the polls. If he can increase his number of core voters he could be in a runoff with Orlando Sanchez.

Sanchez looks like a lock on a place in the runoff for Mayor. With Berry out conservative Anglo voters have no one else to vote for and should move to Sanchez.

White must keep up his efforts to do well in the African-American community and pick up some key endorsements in that group during the last two weeks. He also needs to do well in the Anglo precincts with his message as a strong executive with business experience in running complex organizations.

Here is what the vote might look like on November 4, Election Day:

Orlando and White in a runoff but Sylvester close behind:

Assumption: 300,000 voters in first election. 25 % are African-American, 15 % are Hispanics and of the remaining 60% Anglos, 20% of those are Democrats, Gays, Labor, etc.

African Americans: A Total of 75000 votes. Tuner would get 75% or 56250 votes. The remaining 25% (18750) would be split with White getting 75% of that vote or 14062 votes and Orlando the remainder or 4688 votes

Hispanics: A Total of 45000 votes. Orlando would get 60% or 27000. Of the remaining 18000 votes the White would get 80% or 14400 votes and Turner the rest 3600

Anglos: A total of 180,000 votes. Orlando would get 50% of the Anglo vote or 90000. Of the remaining 90000 votes Bill White would get 70% or 63000 votes and Turner would get 27000.

In this scenario Orlando would have 121,688. White would come in second with 91462 votes and be in a runoff with Orlando. Turner would trail with 86850 votes.