The Democratic race for President is just about three months away from the first test in Iowa and so far Texas has just been a place to raise money and this may continue to be true if the primary stays the second week in March of 2004. So far from this observation point the candidate with the most troops on the ground is Howard Dean. I would say that Dean is the front runner in Texas at the moment.

Dean: Under the leadership of former State Representative Glen Maxey, Dean seems the best positioned in Texas. According to the National Journal Dean leads in New Hampshire and is gaining in Iowa. And they say “... Dean's hanging tough despite the fact that he has yet to turn in a decent debate performance. It's not that Dean's been awful at these debates. But he's come across very cold, and that's something the doctor needs to remedy in order to become an effective general election candidate. Then again, "warm and fuzzy" isn't what got him to where he is right now”

That is true what got him ahead in the early states is his ability to be very direct in what he believes in including his position on the war in Iraq and his strong support in the Gay community.

Kerry: John Kerry may be in second place in New Hampshire but he is no where to be found here in Texas. He has done well in the debates and does look like a President…but he just does not seem to be doing well here in the Southwest.

Gephardt: Dick Gephardt does have some support in Texas left over from his 1988 race and several Democratic Congressmen and former Congressmen are supporting Gephardt. That may be reflected in his inside the beltway support. The National Journal says “If there were a D.C. salon primary poll, Gephardt would be ahead. It's amazing how many Beltway pundits are climbing aboard the Gephardt train these days, believing that the most likely February finalists in the battle for the Democratic nod will be the Tortoise (Gephardt) and the Hare (Dean)”

Edwards: John Edwards has some support from his old trial attorney friends in Texas and that is about it. But Edwards can now wage a campaign in Iowa now that Wesley Clark decided not to contest there. Most folks now think that Edwards could finish in third place in Iowa and pick up some “big mo” as a former President from Texas use to call it. That and a strong showing in South Carolina (where he is leading) could let him pick up some support in Texas.

Clark: Wesley Clark has some good support from the old Clinton campaign structure in Texas, but his performance in the debates and his decision not to try for Iowa has not helped him here. There has never been a Democratic nominee that did not get to the Convention by starting in Iowa and Clarks skipping that state has some of his supporters in Texas worried. His flip flops on funding for Iraq and his quarrel with his former Army comrades has also cause some concern. He does seem to have a good volunteer base, but according to where they are staging their “meet ups” it is not in the inner city of Houston. The last meet up was in the northern suburbs and that is not necessary a strong Democratic area.

Lieberman: Joe Lieberman has some old friends from the Gore days, but nothing on the ground in Texas.

The other candidates: Yes I know we have Carol Moseley Braun, Al Sharpton and even Dennis Kucinich in the race and Braun and Sharpton could be a factor when we get to Texas due to the fact that they are African-Americans. But neither are Jesse Jackson and while they will get some votes in the primary they will not be one of the top three contenders.

So as of today I would see it Dean, Gephardt, Clark, Edwards, Kerry and Lieberman in that order in the Texas primary and some of them may not still be in the race after Iowa and New Hampshire..