With the Ch. 11 and Houston Chronicle poll due out tomorrow let's take another look at the Mayors race as of November 1, 2003. I feel momentum for Bill White and think he now leads in the race for Mayor.

Assumption: 300,000 voters in first election. 25 % are African-American, 15 % are Hispanics and of the 60% of the voters are Anglos, and a third of those are Democrats, Gays, Labor, etc.

African Americans: Not much change here unless the number goes down from 25% of the total vote, which could happen. But for now we leave it with a total of 75000 votes. Turner should get 75% or 56250 of these votes. The remaining 25% (18750) would be split with White getting 75% of that vote or 14062 votes and Sanchez the remainder or 4688 votes

Hispanics: A Total of 45000 votes. I now believe that Sanchez will get only about 50% of this vote. Orlando would get 50% or 22500. Of the remaining 22500 votes the Bill White would get 80% or 18000 votes and Turner the rest 4500

Anglos: A total of 180,000 votes. I think Sanchez has lost support with his base due to his poor debate performance. I now see Orlando Sanchez getting 45% of the Anglo vote or 81000. Bill White would split this vote with Sanchez and get 45% of the Anglo vote or 81000 votes and Sylvester Turner would get 18000.

In this scenario Bill White would come in first with 113,062 votes (37%) Sanchez would be in second place with 108,188 votes (36%) and be in a runoff with White. Turner would trail with 78,750 votes (27%).

Bill Whites campaign has been well-managed and obviously well funded .The support for Orlando has faded as Bill's TV and mailings has pushed his campaign to the front of the pack. Now we have to wait and see if the voters in Houston agree.