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  • June 7, 2006; 10:03 a.m.
    Hispanics are here and increasing. Get use to it!

    OK, what will Texas look like 25 years from now. Even if the Congress does something on immigration Texas will still be a different place. The most popular name for new baby boys is Jose. Does that tell you something? Have you looked around at the folks on the freeways, the movies, the beach. See any changes?

    Read the following from William McKenzie on what the next Governor of Texas should know. It is very interesting:

    "William McKenzie: Next governor must know the numbers

    Demographics will mean a lot for Texas' future

    06:35 AM CDT on Tuesday, June 6, 2006

    Here's something Texans can do while Rick Perry, Grandma Strayhorn, Chris Bell and Kinky Friedman try to outfox each other to win the governor's race in November. Let's think about what we want our state to become. Then, we can better understand which of them should lead it.

    I'll start the conversation with some numbers, because, like them or not, they'll drive Texas for the next few decades. If we don't understand the trend lines they represent, how they are changing Texas under our feet, we will miss the chance to plan well for our future, one in which schools from kindergarten through graduate level will be the be-all, end-all.

    And we'll miss engaging the people who will determine Texas' future.

    The numbers come from Steve Murdock of the University of Texas at San Antonio. He's the state's leading demographer, and if you haven't heard him speak, your church circle, PTA, Rotary Club or women's club should invite him for a presentation (txsdc.utsa.edu). I know these numbers can cause some serious eye-glazing, but they tell our story:

    •Texas grew by 9.3 percent from 2000 to 2005, on top of 22.8 percent growth in the 1990s. Both figures place Texas among the 10 fastest-growing states.

    •In 1990, Texas had about 4.3 million Hispanics. By 2004, that number was estimated at 7.8 million.

    •In the 1990s, Hispanics accounted for more than half the state's population growth. From 2000 to 2005, they accounted for about 75 percent of new Texans.

    •Hispanics could represent 53 percent of our state's population by 2030, compared to 30.3 percent for Anglos and 9.2 percent for blacks.

    Now, let's put on top of these figures some economic and educational numbers from our demographer, Mr. Murdock:

    •In 1999, Texas Hispanics' median income was $29,873, compared to $29,305 for blacks and $47,162 for Anglos.

    •More than half of our state's Hispanics 25 and older hadn't finished high school in 2000; fewer than 20 percent had completed some college, and only about 10 percent had a college degree or higher.

    •Hispanics could occupy 38 percent to 52 percent of Texas' workforce by 2030. They accounted for 17 percent of state revenues in 2000, a number projected to jump to 42.8 percent in 2040.

    We could go on and on, but here are the underlines:

    Hispanics are propelling Texas' red-hot population growth, yet are considerably less affluent and educated than the Anglos who drive Texas' economy today.

    If those who want to lead Texas don't get ahead of these trends, we will end up a poorer, less educated state. That's not what we want in a world where Texas competes for jobs with China as much as California. And it's not a good idea if we expect future taxpayers to support Texas' schools, hospitals, colleges and other services.

    In my book, this is why we can only hope that our next governor – and the governor after that and the one after that – pushes like mad for school improvements. Yes, that means holding schools and teachers accountable. But it also means giving campuses enough teaching tools, whether it's the super-duper lab equipment you see at Dallas' touted School of Science and Engineering at Yvonne A. Ewell Townview Center or just making sure we don't cram 35 kids into a single classroom.

    It also means getting college recruiters out early, which some colleges already do today. Reach down to the seventh grade to interest kids early.

    And beyond the schoolhouse, which candidate has a vision for engaging the largely invisible roofers, busboys and hotel maids, whose children will shape our future? Who's talking to them about keeping their kids in school, inspiring their young ones to dream about becoming an Aggie or even planting a vision for how one of them could win the 2030 governor's race?

    When we know the answers, we will better know who should be our governor in November 2006.

    And if these candidates don't get the importance of these numbers, we shouldn't vote for them – because they don't have a clue about how to position our good state for its coming era".

    William McKenzie is a Dallas Morning News editorial columnist. His e-mail address is wmckenzie@dallasnews.com.


  • Previous posting: MoveOn and Joe Lieberman; June 2, 2006; 3:59 p.m.
  • Next posting: What property tax cut?; June 16, 2006; 10:51 a.m.
  • Complete archive