Two national polls out yesterday have Senator Obama beating Senator McCain, but also show Senator Clinton losing to McCain. Zogby and Rasmussen are the polls with Rasmussen saying “In general election match-ups, Obama leads John McCain 46% to 43% while McCain leads Clinton 49% to 41%”“and in Zogby Obama leads McCain by 46% to 36%.

The Rasmussen poll also showed that Senator Clinton’s unfavorable rating had remained over 50% (about 53%). In other words she is the candidate most voters do not like in the race today. That has not changed much since last year. How can Democrats nominate someone who the voters do not like? In a real election if the election was a week to two away and the incumbent had an unfavorable rating of over 50% you would be getting ready to throw in the towel.

So this Analyst thinks the race is about over. Hillary might win Texas but she will not get sufficient delegates to overtake Obama lead and super delegates will start to move towards Obama like John Lewis did yesterday. It is hard to stay with a candidate that got just 20% or the vote in a district like that of Congressman Lewis. And with the national polls showing Obama could beat McCain and Clinton could not many super delegates will be reassessing their position.

A word of caution however, my experience with African-American candidates is that they poll better than the actual vote count. Sometimes voters tell a pollster that they will vote for a Black candidate but when it comes time to vote they do not actually vote that way. This is called the Tom Bradley effect after the former Mayor of LA who was leading in the polls for Governor of CA, but lost in the actual election. So I think Obama’s lead over McCain is close, more like the Rasmussen poll and not the Zogby.

And I also wonder just how much the voting public actually knows about Senator Obama’s voting record and his very liberal positions on the issues. We know they like what they see and hear, but will they stay a supporter as the GOP starts to go after the Senator? Remember the Swift Boat ads against Senator Kerrey!

--0-1384753788-1203097989=:15949 Content-Type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit