your connection to Texas & National Politics!
Lots of polls out showing the Obama/McCain race too close to call. For instance the Rasmussen poll has the race today at 44% for Obama and 42% for McCain a tie in pollster’s language. Zogby has it 47% for Obama and McCain at 40%. McCain leads among white voters 49% to 36% over Obama according to Zogby. And that number might just be too high for Obama.
Most observers think that by now Obama should have a larger lead given the economy, President Bush’s standing, gas prices, etc. And perhaps Obama will gain as he selects his Vice President and has a good convention in Denver. But this analyst is concerned about polling on Obama and the Tom Bradley effect. That effect is that it is hard to poll accurately on an African-American candidate and is named after former LA Mayor Tom Bradley who was leading in the polls and was expected to be elected Governor of CA only to lose on Election Day. Voters told the pollster one thing and some did the opposite when they were in the voting booth.
Here is what one thoughtful commenter (rinosaurusrex.com) wrote to the New Republic in an email today:
”In a year the Democrats couldn't lose, they've nominated a candidate who can’t win. At the end of the day, a lot of working class white voters are going to view the election like this: A less qualified black candidate vying for the same job as a more experienced white candidate. Now, what does that remind you of? (Affirmative Action?) And how do most Americans feel about Affirmative Action? (Not affirmatively.) But this isn't just about "race". For instance, I don't think voters would question Colin Powell's experience in a contest against Hillary Clinton. This is about race AND experience. In my opinion, the Democrats made a huge mistake nominating the most inexperienced major party candidate in 50 years... and they will pay the price for it on election day. On November 4th, when a lot of voters go into the voting booth, they're going to go with their gut instincts... and that will be bad for Obama. The Bradley Effect is real... and McCain will win”.
So there you have it according to this person, voters and by that he means white voters, will not vote for an inexperienced Black candidate over an experienced white candidate. I supported Obama and still think he would be a great President, but I worry about the Bradley effect and that some voters will vote against him because he is Black and does not have some of the experience required of our President. Then I look at George W. Bush and say so what did being Governor of Texas for 6 years do for him and his experience!
Obama must then in the next 100 days show that he has the leadership and intelligence to make up for his lack of national security experience and that he has a plan for the economy that really will help the nation. He needs to get a great bump from his Veep candidate and he must show at the convention and afterwards that he “it” to be President. Whatever “it” is in the minds of the voters.
Watch the polls and remember Tom Bradley.
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